View source for Lecture 09 (Climate Change: Move to Action (Winter 2008))

{{Lecture
|Lecture Summary=Lecture 9 is about models and modeling.  What is the foundation of models, and how are numerical experiments designed?  Volcanic eruptions are used to demonstrate how production and loss terms are determined.  Volcanic eruptions are also posed as one of the best "laboratory" experiments to test climate models.  Then internal variability is discussed.  Internal variability is demonstrated by El Nino, which is an exchange of energy between the atmosphere and the ocean.  Then with the model, the role of natural and anthropogenic forcing of climate in the last 150 years is discussed. Then the contribution to radiative forcing from the different production and loss terms is presented. The concept of climate sensitivity is introduced - that is, how much will the surface temperature change for a given amount of radiative forcing increase due to CO2.
|Lecture Link=[http://climateknowledge.org/figures/Rood_Climate_Change_AOSS480_Lec2008/AOSS_480_L09_Model_Predictions_20080131.ppt Powerpoint Lecture 9]
|Lecture Outline=* Introduction to Models
* Conservation equation
** Calculation of production and loss terms
*** Volcanoes
** Internal variability
*** El Nino
* The last 150 years.
* Climate Sensitivity
* Radiative Forcing
|Assigned Reading=[http://climateknowledge.org/figures/Rood_Climate_Change_AOSS480_Documents/Roe_Climate_Sensitivity_Science_2007.pdf Roe: Climate Sensitivity and Uncertainty]
|Relevant Reading=[http://climateknowledge.org/figures/Rood_Climate_Change_AOSS480_Documents/Robock_VolcanoClimateForDistribution.ppt Robock: Volcanoes and Climate (A large .ppt presentations (36 MB)]

[http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml NOAA Climate Prediction: Current El Nino / La Nina]

[http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensocycle/ensocycle.shtml NOAA CPC: Excellent slides on El Nino]
|Topics Covered=Conservation Principle, Models, Paleoclimate, Radiative Balance
|Semester=W08
|Readings=Assigned, Relevant
|Format=Lecture
}}