Lecture 11 (Climate Change: Move to Action (Winter 2008))

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{{#if:Lecture 11 talks about models and how models are used to help disentangle "natural" variability and "anthropogenic" variability. The climate record for the last 150 years is modeled using only natural forcing and natural plus anthropogenic forcing. Both are found to be important, but in the last 50 years the observed warming cannot be explained without the heating due to the increase of CO2. There is discussion of consistency of recent observations and phenomena predicted by model simulations. Following discussion of the last 150 years, predictions for the next 100 years are discussed. For the next 100 years, there is more uncertainty in the predictions related to the assumptions of population, energy use, and technology development, than there is related to our understanding of the principles of the physical climate. Finally, the idea of abrupt climate change is introduced, and in particular, the analysis of how the Gulf Stream could change due to melting of Greenland ice sheets.|== Lecture Summary == Lecture 11 talks about models and how models are used to help disentangle "natural" variability and "anthropogenic" variability. The climate record for the last 150 years is modeled using only natural forcing and natural plus anthropogenic forcing. Both are found to be important, but in the last 50 years the observed warming cannot be explained without the heating due to the increase of CO2. There is discussion of consistency of recent observations and phenomena predicted by model simulations. Following discussion of the last 150 years, predictions for the next 100 years are discussed. For the next 100 years, there is more uncertainty in the predictions related to the assumptions of population, energy use, and technology development, than there is related to our understanding of the principles of the physical climate. Finally, the idea of abrupt climate change is introduced, and in particular, the analysis of how the Gulf Stream could change due to melting of Greenland ice sheets.|}} {{#if:Powerpoint Lecture 11|===Lecture Link=== Powerpoint Lecture 11|}} {{#if:* Models and Attribution

  • Conservation equation
  • Calculation of production and loss terms
  • Volcanoes
  • Internal variability
  • El Nino
  • The last 100 years.
  • Climate Sensitivity
  • Radiative Forcing|===Lecture Outline===
  • Models and Attribution
  • Conservation equation
  • Calculation of production and loss terms
  • Volcanoes
  • Internal variability
  • El Nino
  • The last 100 years.
  • Climate Sensitivity
  • Radiative Forcing|}}

{{#if:McCarty: Ecological Consequences of Climate Change

Walther: Ecological Response to Climate Change|== Assigned Reading == McCarty: Ecological Consequences of Climate Change

Walther: Ecological Response to Climate Change|}} {{#if:Osborn: Spatial Extent of Current Warming

Francis: Sea Ice and Water Vapor Feedback

Anderson: Little Ice Age/Baffin Island|== Relevant Reading == Osborn: Spatial Extent of Current Warming

Francis: Sea Ice and Water Vapor Feedback

Anderson: Little Ice Age/Baffin Island|}} {{#if:|== Foundational References == {{{Foundational References}}}|}} {{#if:|== Relevant Readings Posted by Others == {{{Relevant Readings Posted by Others}}}|}} {{#if:Attribution, Conservation Principle, Models, Paleoclimate, Radiative Balance|== Topics Covered == Attribution, Conservation Principle, Models, Paleoclimate, Radiative Balance|}} {{#arraymap:Attribution, Conservation Principle, Models, Paleoclimate, Radiative Balance|,|q|| }} {{#arraymap:W08|,|q|| }} {{#arraymap:Relevant|,|q|| }}



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